With 2020 approaching and a new Covid vaccine out, many of us will be going into the new year with great optimism. One of my goals for the coming year will surely to travel to NYC and take in a show, but it that realistic? Am I getting ahead of myself?
Is It Realistic?
Unfortunately, when looking at the data, it seems that I might be a little optimistic here.
The President Elect has stated a goal of 100 million doses in the first 100 days of August. That puts us into Spring before 100 million have been vaccinated. This may be optimistic as we are still unsure about how smoothly the delivery system is going to work.
If he can reach that goal, that is nearly a third of the population and they need about 2/3 vaccinated to start seeing some Herd immunity. That puts it out another 3 months after that. This means that if all goes well, we should get 2/3 of the population vaccinated by July to August. That is if all goes well.
In reality, we are probably going to be looking at early Winter before we get enough folks vaccinated to start opening up again. If we have learned our lessons, and NYC seems to have, it will be a slow process.
What that tells me is that I should not expect to see a Broadway show in 2021. I am setting my sites on 2022 and you probably should too.
That is okay though, we will get there. In the meantime, we have a lot of other things to look forward to while the vaccine rolls out.
- Declining Hospitalization Rates
- Kids Going Back To School
- More Sporting Events
- A Return To Dining
So, here’s to 2021 and I can’t wait until 2022.
Thoughts, write us.